Key facts
- A line bet adds a points start to one team: at -18.5 the favourite must win by 19 or more, at +18.5 the outsider can lose by up to 18 and still win you the bet.
- The TAB's Victorian and NSW rules set a points start to half a point unless you are told otherwise, so a line bet cannot finish level.
- Both sides at $1.90 add up to 105.26% in implied chances. You need to win 52.63% of those bets to break even.
- Under the TAB's NSW rules, line bets are settled including extra time unless agreed otherwise when you bet.
- Moving the line yourself changes the price: a bigger start costs you payout, a bigger handicap pays more but wins less often.
What line betting is
Line betting is a bet on which team wins once a points start has been added. The bookmaker picks a number that it thinks splits the game evenly, gives that many points to the outsider (shown as +) and takes them off the favourite (shown as -). You then back one side of the line. The TAB describes it as choosing which team will beat the other "once you factor in the points handicap we've set", and compares it to beating your brother in a running race after giving him a 10 metre head start.
The point of the handicap is price. For example, a head to head market on a lopsided game might show the favourite at $1.15 and the outsider at $5.50. The line on the same game will usually show something close to $1.90 each way, because the start has turned the mismatch into something close to a coin flip.
How a line is settled: one game, six results
Take an example line of Home -18.5 at $1.90 and Away +18.5 at $1.90. To settle it, take 18.5 off the home team's final score (or add 18.5 to the away team's) and see who is in front.
| Final result | Home score after -18.5 | Line bet that wins |
|---|---|---|
| Home wins by 30 | Ahead by 11.5 | Home -18.5 |
| Home wins by 19 | Ahead by 0.5 | Home -18.5 |
| Home wins by 18 | Behind by 0.5 | Away +18.5 |
| Home wins by 5 | Behind by 13.5 | Away +18.5 |
| Draw | Behind by 18.5 | Away +18.5 |
| Away wins by 10 | Behind by 28.5 | Away +18.5 |
So a minus line is "win by more than the number" and a plus line is "lose by less than the number, or win". The quick rule: round the half point up for the favourite (-18.5 needs 19) and down for the outsider (+18.5 can lose by 18).
Why the half point is there
The half point exists so the bet cannot tie. The TAB's Victorian sports rules (rule 5.3) and its NSW rules (clause 6.1.3) both say a points start "shall be set to half a point" unless the bookmaker decides otherwise and tells you when you bet. With a whole number such as -18, a home win by exactly 18 would leave neither side ahead, and the bookmaker would need a rule for refunding or splitting the bet. The half point removes the question.
The NSW clause adds a second detail worth knowing: for line betting, the result is decided including any extra time, replay or other contingency needed for an official result, unless agreed otherwise when you bet. If a game can go to golden point or extra time, the line is settled on the final score, not the full time score.
What a $1.90 line costs you
Two prices of $1.90 look fair, but they are not even money. Each implies a 52.63% chance (1 / 1.90), and together they add to 105.26%. The extra 5.26% is the bookmaker's margin.
| Line prices | Implied chance, side A | Implied chance, side B | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1.90 / $1.90 | 52.63% | 52.63% | 105.26% |
| $1.87 / $1.95 | 53.48% | 51.28% | 104.76% |
| $1.85 / $1.95 | 54.05% | 51.28% | 105.34% |
In our calculation, if a line really is a 50-50 proposition, $100 on one side at $1.90 wins $90 half the time and loses $100 half the time: an average loss of $5 per bet. To break even at $1.90 you have to be right 52.63% of the time. That is the bar every line bet has to clear, and it is why a bookmaker margin of a few per cent matters more than any single tip. Our implied probability calculator works out the margin on any two-way line.
Pundit tip: when two bookmakers offer the same line at $1.87 and $1.95, the side at $1.95 needs only 51.28% to break even. Shopping a few cents on the price changes the maths more than most punters realise.
Moving the line: alternative handicaps
If your bookmaker offers alternative lines, you can pick a different handicap from the main line at a different price. Using the same game, a set of example prices might look like this:
| Example line on Home | Example price | Implied chance |
|---|---|---|
| -6.5 | $1.55 | 64.52% |
| -18.5 (main line) | $1.90 | 52.63% |
| -27.5 | $2.40 | 41.67% |
| -36.5 | $3.10 | 32.26% |
These prices are illustrations, not quotes from a bookmaker. The pattern is what matters: every point you ask the favourite to cover raises the price and lowers the chance. Alternative lines are not free value: each one carries the bookmaker's margin, so check it the same way you would check the main line.
Line betting vs head to head and margin bets
Line, head to head betting and margin bets are three ways to bet on the same result.
| Bet | You need | Typical use |
|---|---|---|
| Head to head | Your team to win | Close games where both prices are reasonable |
| Line | Your team to win after the points start | Mismatches, where the head to head price on the favourite is too short to be worth it |
| Margin | The winner and a range of points | When you have a firm view on how big the win will be |
The line is the middle ground. It pays close to even money on either team, and it lets you back an outsider you think will keep the game close without needing it to win. If you like betting on the score itself rather than the gap between teams, over under betting works on the combined total instead.
Line betting by sport
The idea is the same in every code; the size of the handicap simply follows the size of the scores in that sport. Our guides to AFL betting and NRL betting cover the markets and draw rules for each.
In soccer the handicap is in goals, and the TAB's Victorian rules add a twist: if a match is called off but an official result is declared, bets that depend on the number of goals, including line bets, that are not yet decided are void and refunded (rule 11.1.8.2).
Placing a line bet in Australia
Licensed Australian bookmakers can take line bets online, but only before the game starts. In-play sports betting online is banned, and ACMA says the phone exception applies only when the selection, bet type, amount and confirmation are all given during the phone call itself. Set a budget before the bounce, and if betting has stopped being fun, see our gambling help guide for free, confidential support. For the full list of bet types and how they fit together, start at bet types explained.
Frequently asked questions
What does -6.5 mean in line betting?
It means the team carries a 6.5 point handicap. Take 6.5 off its final score; if it is still ahead, your bet wins. In practice the team must win by 7 points or more.
What does +10.5 mean in betting?
The team gets a 10.5 point start. Add 10.5 to its score at the end. It wins you the bet if it wins the game, draws, or loses by 10 points or fewer.
Is line betting the same as handicap betting?
Yes, for Australian football codes the two names describe the same bet: a points start is applied to one team and you pick which side covers it. In soccer the handicap is in goals rather than points.
Can a line bet be a draw?
Not when the line is a half point. The TAB's Victorian and NSW rules both set a points start to half a point unless the bookmaker says otherwise when you bet, so one side always covers.
Does extra time count in line betting?
Under the TAB's NSW rules it does: line bets are decided including any extra time needed for an official result, unless agreed otherwise when you bet. Other bookmakers write their own rules, so check before you bet on a game that can go past full time.
Related reading
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