How to win on pokies: honest tips, myths and the maths

Key facts

No strategy beats the house edge: every spin is random and independent, and the RTP is set in the game.
You cannot tell when a pokie is going to pay. Machines are never due, hot or cold.
What you control: the RTP of the game, your bet size, your speed, and when you stop.
Halving your bet or choosing a 96% game over an 88% game cuts your expected cost more than any so-called system.
Decide a money limit and a time limit before you start, and treat any win as a reason to stop, not to keep going.

The honest answer: you cannot beat a pokie over time

There is no strategy that makes a pokie pay back more than its RTP. Every spin is decided by a random number generator, each spin is independent of the last, and the game is designed to keep a share of all money bet. In the short run you can win, sometimes big. Over time, the more you play, the closer you get to losing the house edge on everything you bet.

That does not mean nothing matters. It means the things that matter are about cost and control, not about cracking the machine.

What you can actually control

These five choices change what pokies cost you. None of them changes your luck.

The game's RTP. A 96% game costs $4 per $100 bet on average; an 88% game costs $12. Check the game info before you start; our guide to reading a pokies paytable shows where the RTP line sits.
Your bet size. Halving your bet halves your average cost per spin.
Your speed. Turbo and autoplay mean more spins per hour, so more turnover and a higher cost.
The volatility. Low volatility stretches a small budget; high volatility can drain it quickly. See our pokies volatility guide.
When you stop. Set a money limit and a time limit before you play. Stopping is the only move that ends the house edge.

What those choices are worth in dollars

Here is the average cost of one hour at 600 spins, starting from $1 a spin on an 88% game.

Change	Average cost per hour	Saving
$1 a spin, 88% RTP	$72	-
$1 a spin, 96% RTP	$24	$48
$0.50 a spin, 88% RTP	$36	$36
$0.50 a spin, 96% RTP	$12	$60
$1 a spin, 88% RTP, 300 spins an hour	$36	$36

Try your own numbers in the pokies calculator.

Pokies myths that cost money

"This machine is due to pay." No. Each spin is independent. A long losing run does not make a win more likely, and how long dry spells normally run is shown in our hit frequency guide.

"It just paid, so it's cold now." Also no, for the same reason. Hot and cold machines do not exist.

"You can tell when a pokie is going to pay." There is no tell. Sounds, near misses and the number of credits on the screen do not predict the next result.

"Pokies pay more at night or on quiet days." The random number generator does not know the time or the crowd.

"Near misses mean a win is close." Two jackpot symbols and a blank are a loss, just designed to feel close.

"Small wins mean I'm doing well." Many wins pay less than the bet. Watch your balance, not the winning music.

Pundit tip: the gambler's fallacy is the belief that past results change future odds. It is behind almost every pokies myth.

Bonuses do not change the maths either

Casino bonuses can add play time, but wagering requirements mean you must bet the bonus many times over, paying the house edge on every bet. Run any offer through the wagering requirements calculator before you accept it.

When it stops being fun

Signs that pokies are costing more than money include chasing losses, playing longer than planned, borrowing to gamble or hiding how much you play. Free, confidential help is available 24/7 on 1800 858 858 through Gambling Help Online. Our gambling help guide and self-exclusion guide list the tools that can help.

Frequently asked questions

Is there a way to win on pokies every time?

No. Each spin is decided by a random number generator and is independent of previous spins, and the game is built to keep a share of all money bet. Anyone selling a system that wins every time is selling a myth.

How can you tell if a pokie is going to pay?

You cannot. Results are random and independent, so a machine that has not paid for a long time is not about to pay, and one that just paid is not cold. Nothing on the screen predicts the next spin.

What is the best strategy for pokies?

The best strategy is about cost, not winning: pick games with a higher RTP, bet smaller, play slower, set a time and money limit, and stop when you reach either. These lower your expected losses; nothing raises your odds above the RTP.

Does betting max increase my chances on pokies?

Not on most modern pokies: the RTP is usually the same at every bet size, so a bigger bet just costs more per spin. On some games the top jackpot needs a higher bet level, so check the game rules before you assume either way.

Should I keep playing after a big win?

A big win is the best moment to stop. If you keep playing, the house edge keeps working on every dollar you put back through the machine, including your winnings.