Key facts
- The Martingale strategy doubles your bet after each loss and drops back to the base bet after a win. Each completed run wins exactly one base bet.
- At a $5 base on red, a $635 bankroll covers 7 bets (up to $320). In our calculation 1 run in 106 ends with 7 losses and a $635 loss.
- Bigger bankrolls bust less often per run but are no more likely to double: $155 doubles 32.4% of the time, $5,115 only 27.1%.
- In our simulation of 200,000 sessions, a $635 Martingale busts within 100 spins 36.3% of the time and within 500 spins 90.6% of the time.
- Every bankroll size loses the same 2.70% of the money it bets on a single zero wheel. The system changes the shape of the losses, never the size.
How the Martingale strategy works
The Martingale strategy is a loss-chasing system for even-money bets: you bet one unit, double the bet after every loss, and go back to one unit after every win. Because each doubled bet is larger than all the previous losses combined, the first win in any run recovers everything and leaves you exactly one base bet ahead.
That is the whole appeal, and it is real. The catch is that a run of losses grows the bet exponentially, and every bankroll and every table limit has a point where the next doubling is impossible. When that happens, you take the entire ladder as a loss.
This page works the numbers at a $5 base on red (or black, odd, even, 1 to 18 or 19 to 36), mostly on a single zero wheel where each even-money bet wins 18 times in 37. To run your own base bet and bankroll, use our Martingale calculator.
A short session, spin by spin
Here is what eight spins of a $5 Martingale look like when the results come out W, L, L, W, L, L, L, W.
| Spin | Result | Bet | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Win | $5 | +$5 |
| 2 | Loss | $5 | $0 |
| 3 | Loss | $10 | -$10 |
| 4 | Win | $20 | +$10 |
| 5 | Loss | $5 | +$5 |
| 6 | Loss | $10 | -$5 |
| 7 | Loss | $20 | -$25 |
| 8 | Win | $40 | +$15 |
Three runs completed, three base bets won: $15. Notice that you had $40 on the table to win $5 on the last spin. That ratio is the system in miniature: risk keeps growing, reward stays fixed at one unit.
The doubling ladder at $5
The ladder below shows what each losing streak costs and how often it happens, in our calculation.
| Losses in a row | Next bet | Lost so far | Chance (single zero) | About 1 in | Chance (double zero) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | $20 | $15 | 26.37% | 4 | 27.70% |
| 4 | $80 | $75 | 6.95% | 14 | 7.67% |
| 5 | $160 | $155 | 3.57% | 28 | 4.04% |
| 6 | $320 | $315 | 1.83% | 55 | 2.13% |
| 7 | $640 | $635 | 0.94% | 106 | 1.12% |
| 8 | $1,280 | $1,275 | 0.48% | 207 | 0.59% |
| 10 | $5,120 | $5,115 | 0.13% | 784 | 0.16% |
The formula is simple: after n losses at base b you have lost b x (2^n minus 1), and your next bet is b x 2^n. A streak of 10 losses, which happens about once every 784 runs, turns a $5 base into a $5,120 bet.
What each bankroll actually buys
A bankroll does not make the Martingale safe; it decides how many losses you can absorb before the run is over. Each row assumes a $5 base and that you stop doubling when you cannot cover the next bet.
| Bankroll | Losses covered | Biggest bet | Bust chance per run | Reach +$100 before a bust | Double the bankroll before a bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $155 | 5 | $80 | 3.57% (1 in 28) | 48.3% | 32.4% |
| $315 | 6 | $160 | 1.83% (1 in 55) | 69.1% | 31.2% |
| $635 | 7 | $320 | 0.94% (1 in 106) | 82.8% | 30.1% |
| $1,275 | 8 | $640 | 0.48% (1 in 207) | 90.8% | 29.1% |
| $2,555 | 9 | $1,280 | 0.25% (1 in 403) | 95.1% | 28.1% |
| $5,115 | 10 | $2,560 | 0.13% (1 in 784) | 97.5% | 27.1% |
Read the last column carefully. A bigger bankroll makes each run safer, but it also needs more runs to double, and the two effects more than cancel. In our calculation the chance of doubling your money falls as the bankroll grows. A huge bankroll buys you a long, steady trickle of $5 wins and an even bigger final bill.
Pundit tip: the "reach +$100" column is why the Martingale feels like it works. Most nights you hit a small target. The losses come rarely, but each one wipes out many nights of profit.
Table limits cap the ladder
Casinos do not need to ban the Martingale, because the table maximum ends it for them. Approved Australian rules deal with oversized bets directly: in the rules for Crown Melbourne's roulette, approved by the VGCCC, a bet above the permitted maximum is paid or collected only up to the maximum, and Tasmania's roulette rules say partnerships aimed at exceeding the maximum are not allowed. Every table also displays its minimum and maximum.
With a $5 base and a $500 table limit, the ladder runs 5, 10, 20, 40, 80, 160, 320. The eighth bet would be $640, over the limit, so you can cover 7 losses whatever your bankroll. The ratio between minimum and maximum, not your wallet, sets the real ceiling.
How a Martingale session plays out
Per-run odds hide how quickly busts arrive once you play for a while. We simulated 200,000 sessions of a $5 Martingale with a $635 bankroll, stopping at the first bust:
| Session length | Busted at least once | Finished ahead | Average result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 spins | 36.3% | 63.1% | -$40.82 |
| 500 spins | 90.6% | 29.6% | -$100.41 |
| 1,000 spins | 99.1% | 29.7% | -$108.06 |
A 100-spin session is the one people remember: nearly two in three finish ahead. Stretch it to 500 spins and a bust becomes close to certain. The average is negative at every length.
Why the average never changes
On a single zero wheel every bet loses 1/37 of its value on average, so your expected loss equals 2.70% times the total you bet. The Martingale only changes how much you bet and when. We checked every bankroll in the table above: the expected result per run divided by the expected amount staked per run is minus 2.70% each time. For the $635 bankroll that is minus $1.03 per run on $37.97 staked.
This is the same arithmetic behind every other system on this site. The Paroli system reverses the Martingale and doubles after wins instead. The Fibonacci betting system, d'Alembert betting system and Labouchere betting system grow bets more slowly after losses, and Oscar's Grind raises bets only after wins. All of them lose 2.70% of the total bet. Our roulette strategy guide puts them side by side.
The Martingale betting system on sports odds
The Martingale betting system gets worse when the bet is not paid at even money. At odds of $1.90, a win returns only 90 cents profit per dollar, so recovering $5 of losses plus a $5 profit needs a stake of $11.11, not $10. In our calculation, the stakes to stay one $5 win ahead run $5.56, $11.73, $24.76, $52.27, $110.35, $232.96 and $491.81, a total of $929.43 across seven losses, against $635 at true even money.
The legal side
Nothing in the approved roulette rules we read for Victoria, Tasmania or the ACT stops you betting this way at a licensed casino; the house edge and the table limit do the work. Online roulette is another matter: under the Interactive Gambling Act 2001, ACMA lists roulette among the casino games that cannot legally be offered online to people in Australia. Playing is not an offence, but unlicensed sites give you no local protection. The fuller picture is in our online roulette Australia guide.
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Frequently asked questions
Does the Martingale strategy work?
No, not in the sense of beating the house. It wins one base bet on almost every run and loses the whole ladder on the rest, and in our calculation those two outcomes always average out to a loss of 2.70% of everything bet on a single zero wheel.
How much bankroll do I need for the Martingale?
To survive n losses in a row at a base bet b you need b times (2 to the power n, minus 1). At $5 that is $155 for 5 losses, $635 for 7 and $5,115 for 10. No amount is enough to make it safe, because the streak that beats your bankroll is always possible.
What is the chance of losing 7 times in a row on red?
On a single zero wheel it is (19/37) to the power 7, about 0.94% or 1 in 106 runs, in our calculation. On a double zero wheel it rises to 1.12%, about 1 in 89.
Can a table limit stop the Martingale?
Yes. Approved Australian rules say a bet above the table maximum is paid or collected only up to the maximum, so the ladder ends where the limit is. With a $5 base and a $500 limit, the seventh bet ($320) is the last one you can double to.
Is the Martingale betting system better on sports bets?
No, it is worse. At odds of $1.90 the stake has to grow by more than double after each loss, and in our calculation seven losses at a $5 target cost $929.43 instead of $635.
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