Key facts
- The best baccarat strategy is to bet banker every hand: its house edge is 1.06% after the 5% commission, against 1.24% on player, in our exact 8 deck calculation.
- Side bets cost far more. Banker or player pair at 11 to 1 has a 10.36% edge, Super 6 at 15 to 1 a 13.82% edge, and the tie at 8 to 1 a 14.36% edge.
- No-commission tables that pay half on a banker win with 6 raise the banker edge to 1.46%, so the classic 5% commission table is the better deal.
- Betting systems and scorecard patterns do not change any of these numbers. Your expected loss is the house edge times the total you bet.
- Hand speed is the hidden cost: at 75 hands an hour, $10 on banker costs about $7.94 an hour on average; at 133 hands an hour it is $14.11.
The short version: bet banker and stop there
Baccarat strategy comes down to one decision you make before the cards come out. The drawing rules are fixed, so the only thing you control is which bet you place, how big it is and how many hands you play. On the standard game the banker bet is the cheapest choice on the table.
We enumerated every possible deal from an 8 deck shoe, removing each card as it is drawn. If you want the rules of the deal itself, the third card chart is on our how to play baccarat page. This page is about what to bet.
| Bet | Pays | Wins | House edge (8 decks) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Banker | 0.95 to 1 (5% commission) | 45.86% | 1.06% |
| Player | 1 to 1 | 44.62% | 1.24% |
| Tie | 8 to 1 | 9.52% | 14.36% |
Ties return banker and player bets, which is why the two main bets look so close to even. Counted only over hands that settle a banker bet, its edge is 1.17%. Either way, the gap between banker and player is about 0.18 percentage points. It is small, but it is the only real edge you can choose in this game.
Baccarat house edge on the side bets
Side bets are where baccarat stops being a low-cost game. The VGCCC-approved baccarat rules for Melbourne's casino (version 30.0, effective 24 August 2026) list a long menu of optional wagers. We priced the ones with fixed pay tables, for an 8 deck shoe:
| Side bet | Pays | Our house edge |
|---|---|---|
| Dragon Bonus, player side | 1 to 1 up to 30 to 1, by winning margin | 2.65% |
| Dragon Bonus, banker side | Same table | 9.37% |
| Player pair or banker pair | 11 to 1 | 10.36% |
| Super 6 (banker wins with 6), option 2 | 16 to 1 | 8.43% |
| Super 6, option 1 | 15 to 1 | 13.82% |
| Tie | 8 to 1 | 14.36% |
The Dragon Bonus pays when your chosen hand wins by 4 or more points, or wins with a natural. On the player side it is the least bad side bet we found, but it is still two and a half times the cost of a banker bet. The banker side of the same bet is nearly nine times the cost. Same pay table, very different price, because the banker hand draws last and wins its hands by smaller margins more often.
A pair comes up on the first two cards of a hand about 7.47% of the time in 8 decks. At 11 to 1 the bet needs a pair about 8.33% of the time to break even, so it loses about 10 cents of every dollar you put on it.
Pundit tip: read the pay table before you sit. Two tables that look identical can run Super 6 at 15 to 1 or 16 to 1, and that single point moves the edge from 13.82% to 8.43%.
Commission, no-commission and other banker rules
The 5% commission exists because the banker hand wins more often: it acts after seeing the player's third card. Casinos have found other ways to take that edge back, and they are not all equal.
| Banker rule | Where you see it | Banker house edge (our calculation) |
|---|---|---|
| Pays 0.95 to 1 on every win | Traditional tables | 1.06% |
| Pays 1 to 1, but only half on a win with 6 | Evolution's No Commission Baccarat; a variant in the approved Victorian rules | 1.46% |
A banker win with a total of 6 happens on about 5.39% of hands. Paying half on those wins costs you more than the 5% commission does, so on these numbers the traditional table is the better deal. Evolution's version also offers the Super 6 side bet at 15 to 1, which on our numbers is the 13.82% option.
Victoria's regulator approves every change to casino table games. Its published decisions include allowing a continuous shuffling machine without a cutting card (December 2024) and, in October 2025, adding Dragon Tiger side wagers while removing the Tiger and Tiger Pair side wagers. New side bets keep arriving; the arithmetic for judging them does not change.
Systems, patterns and scorecards
Baccarat tables and live streams show "roads" and scorecards of past results. Pattern systems tell you to follow a streak or bet against a chop. None of them can work, for a simple reason: the drawing rules do not look at past hands, and removing a few cards from an eight deck shoe barely moves the odds of the next hand.
Progressive systems fail for the same reason. A Martingale on banker doubles after each loss, wins one unit most of the time and occasionally loses the whole stack. The average of those outcomes is still 1.06% of everything bet. Our Martingale strategy page runs the numbers, and the gambler's fallacy explains why a run of player wins does not make banker "due".
What a system really changes is how much you bet in total. Since
expected loss = house edge x total amount bet
anything that raises your total bet raises your expected loss, whatever order the bets come in.
What a session of baccarat costs
Speed matters more than most players think. Evolution says a standard live baccarat round lasts 48 seconds and a Speed Baccarat round 27 seconds. If you bet $10 on every round:
| Pace | Hands an hour | Total bet | Average cost on banker | On player | On tie |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48 second rounds | 75 | $750 | $7.94 | $9.26 | $107.70 |
| 27 second rounds | 133 | $1,333 | $14.11 | $16.47 | $191.47 |
The banker bet is cheap per hand, but the faster table nearly doubles the hourly cost. Fewer hands is the most effective strategy there is. Our live baccarat guide covers the faster formats and the fees on the multiplier versions.
Card counting in baccarat
Counting cards does not give you a practical edge on banker or player. The drawing rules use most of the cards in a balanced way, so the composition of the remaining shoe rarely moves either main bet into positive territory, and continuous shufflers remove the shoe altogether. Leave counting to blackjack odds, where it can matter.
How baccarat compares
At 1.06%, a banker bet sits among the cheapest bets in any casino, alongside basic strategy blackjack and the pass line in craps. Our house edge guide explains how these figures are calculated, and best odds casino games ranks the main games side by side.
Baccarat is legal in person at licensed Australian casinos. Online baccarat is a casino game that cannot legally be offered to people in Australia under the Interactive Gambling Act 2001, and ACMA blocks illegal offshore sites. It is not an offence for you to play, but you have none of the protections a licensed venue gives you. If the cost of play stops feeling like entertainment, the gambling help page lists free, confidential support.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the best baccarat strategy?
Bet banker. In our exact calculation for 8 decks the banker bet has a 1.06% house edge after commission, the lowest of any standard baccarat bet. Avoid the tie and the side bets, and keep the number of hands you play under control.
What are the odds in baccarat?
In an 8 deck shoe the banker hand wins 45.86% of hands, the player hand 44.62% and a tie 9.52%, in our calculation. A natural (8 or 9 on two cards) and the drawing rules are fixed, so you never make a playing decision.
What is the house edge in baccarat?
Banker 1.06% after the 5% commission, player 1.24%, tie at 8 to 1 14.36%, in our 8 deck calculation. Side bets run from 2.65% (player Dragon Bonus) to 13.82% (Super 6 at 15 to 1).
Is no commission baccarat better?
No, not in the common version. Where a banker win with a total of 6 pays only half, the banker edge rises to 1.46%, compared with 1.06% when you pay 5% commission on every banker win.
Do baccarat betting systems work?
No. Martingale, Paroli and pattern systems change when you bet more or less, not the edge on each hand. Over any session you lose, on average, the house edge times the total amount you bet.
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